I recently read a book titled How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins. It looks at some of the nations significant corporations, past and present, and evaluates the rise and fall of many of them. He overlays five stages of this falling process. I believe there is something in this book for us as individuals but also for the church. What follows is how I see the principles in this book being applied to the church.

It’s no secret, the church in North America is in decline. Attendance is down, people (young and old) are walking away, and once-thriving congregations are closing their doors. If this isn’t alarming to you, it should be. And no, this isn’t just another cultural shift we can sit back and ignore, hoping it will fix itself. In fact, Jim Collins’ analysis in How the Mighty Fall provides a sobering look at what happens when organizations—churches included—refuse to address the warning signs of decline.

In his book, Collins traces the downfall of successful companies through five distinct stages: hubris (pride) born of success, undisciplined pursuit of more, denial of risk and peril, grasping for salvation, and finally, capitulation to irrelevance or death. Sound familiar? It should. These stages aren’t just reserved for businesses; they apply directly to a variety of scenarios in life including the local church.

1. Detriment of Pride

The first stage of decline, according to Collins, is the arrogance that comes from past success. For decades, the church in North America sat comfortably in the driver’s seat of culture. We built massive buildings, programs, and ministries, and we thought we had it all figured out. The problem? We became arrogant. We assumed that because we were successful in the past, we would always be successful. We took on a build it and they will come mentality. We acted as though all we had to do was hold to what we believe and the rest would work itself out.

Collins warns that this kind of pride is dangerous: “Great enterprises can become insulated by their success, becoming bloated and slow in their decision-making processes” (How the Mighty Fall, p. 26). The church’s historical position in society made us complacent. We assumed that people would keep coming, that we would remain relevant just because we always had been. Guess what? We were wrong. And that arrogance has set us on a dangerous path.

2. I Want MORE!

The second stage of decline is what Collins calls the “undisciplined pursuit of more.” We’ve seen this play out in the church in numerous ways. As numbers started to dwindle, many churches responded by starting more programs, events, and ministries hoping something would solve the problem. Remember build it and they will show up right? More opportunities means more people will be here. Bigger worship experiences, more events, more complexity. But this lack of focus is killing us. Trying to be all things to all people in all circumstances isn’t working out well.

Collins states, “When an organization grows beyond its ability to fill its key seats with the right people, it has set itself up for a fall” (How the Mighty Fall, p. 39). The church, in its attempt to stay relevant, has often stretched itself too thin, offering everything to everyone while failing to keep its focus on its core mission: making disciples. We’ve traded depth for breadth, and now we’re paying the price. We traded discipleship and evangelism for programs and teaching styles.

3. Denial

Stage three is where things get really dangerous: denial. Collins says that organizations in this phase ignore the warning signs that their success is crumbling. The church in North America has been in this stage for decades, refusing to admit that we are, in fact, in decline. We point to outliers, large megachurches, or the strength of our teaching as proof that everything’s fine. But it’s not fine. We’re bleeding members, and our cultural influence is fading fast.

Here’s a hot take for you – the church does NOT exist without people!

Collins puts it bluntly: “In this stage, internal warning signs begin to mount, yet external results remain strong enough that leaders explain away disturbing data or attribute it to external factors” (How the Mighty Fall, p. 52). Sound familiar? We’ve been explaining away the decline of the church for too long—blaming secularism, technology, or changing moral values. But the real problem is our refusal to adapt and change.

Now don’t get your undies in a bunch! We need to know what can’t be change and hold fast. The truth of the Gospel. The purity of our doctrines are key! But the forms they take on? The way they’re expressed…those are the things that we need to be constantly evaluating.

4. Grasping for Salvation

In the fourth stage, Collins describes organizations in panic mode. They start grasping for quick fixes and salvation strategies. In the church, this often looks like chasing the latest trend: new worship styles, celebrity guest speakers, or flashy marketing campaigns. Or they move to the flip side and double down on tradition. We circle the wagons and cling tightly to what’s always worked so why not force everyone to look the same? But these are just Band-Aids on a gaping wound. “Leaders desperately search for a silver bullet,” Collins writes, “but most attempts fail to produce sustained improvements” (How the Mighty Fall, p. 78).

We’ve been trying to “fix” the church without addressing the root issues. These quick-fix strategies may work temporarily, but they aren’t sustainable.

5. Tapping Out

Finally, if we continue down this road, we’ll reach the fifth stage: irrelevance or death. This is where churches close their doors for good. And yes, it’s happening. All across North America, congregations are shutting down because they refused to acknowledge and act on the early stages of decline. “Capitulation is the final collapse,” Collins warns (How the Mighty Fall, p. 94). Will that be our fate too?

It Doesn’t Have To Be This Way

If we don’t wake up, we will continue down this path of decline. The church isn’t immune to the forces that cause other organizations to fall. We must acknowledge the warning signs, face reality, and take action before it’s too late. The good news is that Collins also emphasizes recovery is possible. But it requires humility, focus, and a willingness to change.

The time for complacency is over. Let’s stop denying the truth and start making the bold, hard decisions necessary to save the church before it’s too late. And it starts with an honest assessment of our current reality. If we can be brutally honest of our position on the lifecycle curve, we can properly address some next steps.